November 5, 2009

Matthew Hatfield
VirginiaPreps.com Senior Writer

Below are the predictions and analysis for this week's games as well as the update on the 'picks' battle that's going on between State Football Editor Rod Johnson and Eastern Region Football Writer Matthew Hatfield.

Game of the Week:

#1 Oscar Smith (9-0) at #7 Great Bridge (8-1):  The Southeastern District Championship is on the line in this one and for Oscar Smith they are going for their sixth straight district title.  Senior quarterback Phillip Sims, who's committed to Alabama and leads the Eastern Region with 1995 yards passing and 22 touchdowns, is going for another milestone in his illustrious career.  Sims has thrown for 108 touchdown passes in his four years with the Tigers, putting him for touchdown strikes away from matching the VHSL record set a year ago by Dinwiddie's Adam Morgan.  If Sims doesn't get it in this game, he certainly should in their playoff game next week.  Kicker Ryan Trotman is also chasing a record; he's currently tied with Haysi's Allen Owens for the most extra points made in VHSL history at 174.  That record should be broken at some point in the first quarter, given the fact they are averaging 38.1 points per game as a team.  It's not all about Sims and Trotman though; they have the second leading rusher in the Southeastern District with J.C. Coleman, who has rushed for 12 touchdowns and 845 yards.  Receivers Charlie Ricks and Quinta Funderburk are putting up stellar numbers as well, combining for 17 touchdown receptions and over 1400 yards.

As for Great Bridge, the Wildcats aren't too shabby either now.  They like the football around quite a bit and have the region's second leading passer to do it with in junior Brad Hudson.  He's thrown for 1978 yards and 21 touchdowns.  In this game, Hudson will have to make good decisions, not force the ball into tight coverage where it could get picked off and get support from the running game, which has had its moments this year, led by Dominique Davis.  How important is the running game for Great Bridge?  Since 2007, the Wildcats are 10-0 when rushing for over 100 yards and after doing it only once in all of 2008, they've done it six times this season.  Hudson can still get the ball to wideouts Trey Bray and Marc Meier, a tandem that has combined for 73 catches, but it needs to be a point of emphasis that they run the ball and keep the Tigers' offense on the sideline as long as possible.

On the Oscar Smith side of things, it's the old adage of 'keep doing what you've been doing.'  In that case, it means apply pressure on Hudson early and often with the defensive front, anchored by Penn State commit Evan Hailes and Corey Steward, chasing the school record for career sacks and playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level in '09.  Ricks is a threat to not only get a pick, as he has eight on the year going into last week, but also to take it to the house with his blazing speed.  And from the linebacker position, Jeremy Majette and Raysean Richardson aren't fun to get tackled by at all, each bringing the pain with every hit.      

Matt Says:  Oscar Smith 42-13

Rod Says:  Oscar Smith 35-7

#12 Bethel (6-3) at #2 Phoebus (9-0):  It has to still be in the minds of the Bethel players, the 52-0 domination by Phoebus early last year in the head-to-head matchup.  That began a string of 14 shutouts in a 23-game span for Phoebus, which is tops in the region in points allowed, surrendering only four points per game.  Tailback Colby Goodwyn on offense leads the area in rushing with 1304 yards on the ground and 19 touchdowns.  The Bruins counter with a pass-first, run-second attack with quarterback Rashad Manley (1491 yards, 13-14TD/Int. ratio) at the controls.  Bethel still can get in the playoffs and we're likely to see a re-match of these two teams against one another in next week's opening round of the postseason with the Bruins as the #8 seed and Phantoms as the top seed.  That is unless Norcom gets beat by Booker T. Washington or Lakeland upsets Grassfield. 

Matt Says:  Phoebus 24-8

Rod Says:  Phoebus 28-7

Heritage (1-8) at #3 Woodside (8-1):  Few teams are capable of keeping up with the vaunted Woodside offense, which is averaging 50 points per game in their last four games since falling to Phoebus 21-19 in a heart-breaker.  The Wolverines are able to run it, throw it and make big-time plays whenever the ball is in the hands of their dual-threat, dangerous senior quarterback Aaron Evans.  Evans needs only 106 yards rushing against a Heritage defense that is allowing 33.6 points per game and kept only one opponent, Denbigh in the season opener, below 100 yards rushing.  Jason Robinson announced this week that he is resigning from his post as Head Football Coach for the Hurricanes, and it'll be interesting to see how the players react, particularly the seniors, in their final regular season contest against what is clearly becoming an offensive juggernaut. 

Matt Says:  Woodside 48-12

Rod Says:  Woodside 41-7

#4 Grassfield (7-2) at Lakeland (6-3):  For Lakeland, it's very simple.  Win and you're in, lose and your season is done.  Second-year Head Coach Glenwood Ferebee has a tall task in front of him, re-focusing a Cavaliers team that was stunned a week ago by city rival King's Fork and beating a Grassfield team that has won five straight since the Grizzlies suffered heart-breaking defeats at the hands of Maury and Oscar Smith.  The Grassfield defense is about as tough as they come around Hampton Roads, holding six consecutive teams to 14 points or less and not giving up more than 17 points in any contest all year.  Will Lakeland running back Cedric Johnson, who leads the Southeastern District in rushing with 917 yards and 13TD's, find room to run versus that stingy defense?  A turnover or huge special teams play can go a long way towards deciding the outcome of this one.

Matt Says:  Grassfield 17-7

Rod Says:  Grassfield 21-12

#5 Lake Taylor (7-2) vs. Norview (3-6) at Powhatan:  If you've heard the phrase 'Something's Gotta Give,' then it applies in the regular season finale for the Norview Pilots and Lake Taylor Titans on Thursday at Powhatan Field in Norfolk.  Norview has the Southside's leading rusher in senior Stephen Sims, fresh off picking up an offer from Howard University.  Sims has 1226 yards on the ground and 15 touchdowns, including recent monster games against Booker T. Washington and Granby.  Meanwhile, the Titans of Lake Taylor have given up less than 30 yards rushing as a team the entire season, and what makes that stat even more astonishing is they gave up runs of 69, 41 and 26 yards a week ago in their come-from-behind win over Norcom.  Other than those three plays, teams have been going backwards and doing so in a hurry all year long.

Matt Says:  Lake Taylor 41-14

Rod Says:  Lake Taylor 30-7

#6 Bayside (8-1) at Kellam (4-5):  In order to avoid suffering their first losing season since 1999, Kellam needs to upset the Beach District Champion Marlins of Bayside on Friday night.  A win for Bayside pretty much locks up the #2 seed for them in the Eastern Region Division 6 playoffs, which could be the difference in the second round between traveling to Todd Stadium and possibly hosting Woodside.  Again, that's getting a tad ahead of ourselves, but it doesn't diminish the significance of this game for a Bayside team that wants to stay in a rhythm with a freshman quarterback in Deion Stitt (1194 yards, 11-9TD/Int. ratio) going into the playoffs.  Bayside has the stronger defense, both against the run and pass, and they'll be keying in on stopping Kellam's Kelvin 'K.J.' Florence, a player with 383 yards rushing and 8TD's as well as 24 catches for 264 yards.

Matt Says:  Bayside 20-13

Rod Says:  Bayside 17-14

Booker T. Washington (5-4) at #8 Norcom (7-2):  This game is huge for Booker T. Washington and first-year Bookers Head Coach Che' Jacobs.  While he guaranteed an 8-2 record before the season and they won't get that, Jacobs would like to get them in the postseason for the first time since 2004, and in order to do that, they must travel to Norcom and beat the Greyhounds, still smarting from seeing their 17-point third quarter lead against Lake Taylor erased in a disappointing loss.  A Norcom win gives them either a #3 or #4 seed most likely, but a loss could drop them to a #6 or #7 seed.  The quarterback battle should be fun to watch.  Norcom's Deandre Lamb has 23 total touchdowns, either by way of run or pass, and the Bookers' Dominique Marsh has thrown for 1440 yards and 15 touchdowns, including seven in a game earlier this season.  Dionte Edwards also returns to the lineup for BTW, but Norcom is used to playing in close games and that may give them a slight edge.

Matt Says:  Norcom 25-21

Rod Says:  Norcom 35-20

Wilson (2-7) at #9 Churchland (6-3):  Seeking their first Eastern District title, shared or outright, in 12 years, the Churchland Truckers are guaranteed to have it with a win over Portsmouth foe Wilson.  More importantly perhaps, they are in position to get the #3 seed in Division 5 with a win, which means a home game for the opening round too.  Their two-headed monster running the football of Jocorey Robins and Cedric Cradle Jr. is starting to heat up, and the defense with D-I commit Dominique Guinn-Bailey (Old Dominion) responded from giving up 20 or more in three straight games by holding Maury to nine points.  The Wilson offense showed progress early in the season when they played Lakeland, Menchville and Nansemond River, scoring 58 points in those games, but they've struggled since, scoring just 41 points over the last six.

Matt Says:  Churchland 42-6

Rod Says:  Churchland 23-7

#10 Hampton (6-3) at Menchville (2-7):  If you want to see two of the most exciting players in the state, then it's worth checking out the game between the Menchville Monarchs and playoff-bound Hampton Crabbers on Saturday at Todd Stadium.  Menchville, in spite of its 2-7 record, has the second-leading rusher in the Eastern Region in Clifton Richardson (185Att. 1240Yds. 11TD), and the Monarchs have a little bit of momentum off their win over Heritage a week ago.  Henry Booth has also given them balance with 728 yards passing.  For Hampton, the Crabbers have a dynamic playmaker in Dion Futch, who has 31 catches for 554 yards and scored 13 touchdowns in a variety of ways, whether it be rushing, receiving or on defense or special teams by running a pick of return back to the house.  Hampton's depth is probably too much for Menchville to overcome, though.

Matt Says:  Hampton 45-9

Rod Says:  Hampton 44-14

First Colonial (5-4) at #11 Cox (6-3):  Just like Booker T. Washington and Lakeland in Division 5, the First Colonial Patriots are in a situation in Division 6 where a win over Cox gets them in the playoffs, whereas a loss eliminates them from postseason consideration.  Cox has clinched a berth for the second consecutive year under Head Coach Bill Stachelski, this for a program that had never been to the playoffs before the 2008 campaign.  Now the question for Cox becomes what seed will they be, whether it's #5, #6, #7 or #8?  A victory helps them without question, and quarterback D.J. DiNardo is coming off a game that he'll remember for the rest of his life, putting the team on his back in an overtime loss to Ocean Lakes.  The trio of DiNardo, Severin Rucker and Devaul Peterson headline a tough Falcons ground attack that has piled up almost 2000 yards rushing as a team this season.  FC's defense is tough, led by Nick Dew (Virginia Tech commit), Darryl Brown and Willie Byrn.  That being said, Cox has the ability to wear the opposition down.

Matt Says:  Cox 16-13

Rod Says:  Cox 20-13

Kempsville (5-4) at Princess Anne (1-8):  For Kempsville, it's pretty simple.  Win and you're in, provided Cox also beats First Colonial.  The Chiefs are going for the #8 seed and their first postseason appearance since the 2002 campaign when they were co-Beach District Champions with Ocean Lakes under then Head Coach Jeff Beard.  Current Head Coach David Johnson is going to ride the running game, led by junior D-I prospect Travis Hughes.  Even though they are using a third-string quarterback in Cody Mister, the Chiefs had decent numbers passing the football in last week's 17-7 mild upset of Landstown.  As long as they contain Cavaliers running back Xavier Morgan, the defense should keep Princess Anne out of the end zone for most of the night on their way to achieving a winning season.

Matt Says:  Kempsville 35-3

Rod Says:  Kempsville 35-6

Ocean Lakes (3-6) at Landstown (6-3):  On the field, the Ocean Lakes Dolphins are a perfect 9-0.  However, a ruling upheld by the Virginia High School that forced the Dolphins to forfeit six victories has them out of the playoff mix; this for a team with hopes and dreams of returning to the Eastern Region Division 6 Championship game again.  For seniors such as Justin Hunter (LSU commit), Matthew Baptiste (Richmond commit), Wes Moulton and Jon Godfrey, all of whom are multi-year starters and All-District performers, it'll be the final game they play before going on to college.  They want to be memorable, so expect them to put forth an effort like none we've seen all year.  Landstown is coming off a loss to Kempsville by a score of 17-7 a week ago, and how they bounce back could be critical because they don't want to go into the postseason off consecutive defeats.

Matt Says:  Ocean Lakes 34-17

Rod Says:  Ocean Lakes 17-7

Tallwood (2-7) vs. Salem (5-4) at the Va. Beach Sportsplex:  Coming off a bye week, expect Robert Jackson's SunDevils to be well-rested, healthy and ready to go in their regular season finale against a Tallwood team that has scored only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games.  The Lions will rely on the running of Nate Driver and decision making of QB Robert Brown to get them going as well as key defensive players from DB Byron Mitchell, who returned an interception for a touchdown in last week's narrow win over Princess Anne, and run stopper D'ante Nichols.  Freshman quarterback Temuchin Hodges flourished in his last start, totaling 152 yards and producing 3TD's in a Salem victory.  Sophomore tailback Divante Walker is also in a groove as of late, rushing for five touchdowns his last three games, including a 53-yard scamper against Cox.  Look for the Salem defense, led by senior LB Josh Rodgers, to be slightly better and the difference in this one.

Matt Says:  Salem 26-10

Rod Says:  Salem 21-7

Maury (5-4) at Granby (2-7):  While the playoffs are out of the realm of possibility for the Granby Comets, Curt Brown's team should really be fired up for the regular season finale if for no other reason than the fact it's against longtime Norfolk rival Maury.  Granby can hurt Maury's playoff chances, but probably not knock them out of the postseason though definitely affect their seeding with an upset of the Commodores.  And the Maury offense can't really bust out, having scored 17 points or less in eight straight games since the 37-point outburst in their season-opening win over Norview.  Keenan Lambert is probably the most versatile and best athlete on the field, which gives Maury an edge.  Anything goes in these rivalry games though, and if a spirited Granby defense causes turnovers, don't rule out the upset.

Matt Says:  Maury 19-15

Rod Says:  Maury 19-6

Deep Creek (4-5) at Western Branch (4-5):  It used to be this was the 'must-see' game in the Southeastern District years ago when Lew Johnston was at Western Branch and David Cox was at Deep Creek.  They were dominant programs and playoff fixtures during the 1990's and early 2000's.  Now they both are trying to avoid a losing season.  For Deep Creek, the Hornets have had a couple here lately.  Western Branch on the other hand hasn't had one since 1989.  The running of Leondre Walker for Scott Johnson's Bruins has been pivotal these past few weeks as he has rushed for 784 yards on the season with 626 of those yards coming in the last four games.  The best way to slow him down for Deep Creek is with a ball-control offense of their own.  Deep Creek's defense held Grassfield to seven points a week ago, and the key will be getting strong running from Charles Arnold as well as good blocking up front.

Matt Says:  Western Branch 21-7

Rod Says:  Western Branch 16-6

Indian River (0-9) at Hickory (2-7):  These two teams come in riding long losing streaks.  Indian River has dropped 10 straight dating back to last year's playoff loss to Hampton.  As for Hickory, the Hawks opened 2-0 and have since lost seven straight.  In terms of lunch pale guys and big boys up front, the Hawks look to be the better squad with a host of solid young linemen to build around for the future.  When it comes to overall athletes and players at the skilled positions though, Indian River has a distinct advantage.  What have plagued them throughout the year are inexperience and their inability to sustain drives.  Freshman QB Corwin Cutler may enjoy one of his best games yet, throwing to Kevin Lewis, a senior that wants to go out with a big performance, on the road, playing for a pride and trying to help his team get their first win of the year.

Matt Says:  Indian River 18-10

Rod Says:  Hickory 8-7

Nansemond River (2-7) at King's Fork (2-7):  A win by King's Fork and the Bulldogs won't make the playoffs at 3-7, but they'll have bragging rights in the city of Suffolk having beaten both Lakeland and Nansemond River in the final two weeks of the regular season, perhaps making for nice momentum going into 2010.  Warriors running back Lamont Brown has to be closing in on 700 or 800 yards rushing for the season as he's been a real tough customer for opposing defenses to handle, even though Nansemond River is averaging just 9.4 points per game.  Another sophomore, King's Fork QB Matt Hommell, seems comfortable in the offense now and did a decent job both passing and rushing in last week's 7-6 victory.  This game will be about defense and which teams comes with better intensity, energy, enthusiasm and a key takeaway or stop on third down in the waning moments.

Matt Says:  King's Fork 12-11

Rod Says:  King's Fork 14-7

Denbigh (4-5) at Gloucester (0-9):  The Patriots may be without QB Allen Simon, RB Jarmaine Rawls and LT Terrence Holston for the rest of the season, but they still have enough talent and playmakers at the wide receiver position with Lavon Pearson (40Rec. 697Yds. 5TD) and Rodriquez Jones (16Rec. 219Yds. 3TD) to get by the Dukes in Gloucester.  Quarterback Zack Tarpey of Gloucester has thrown for 750 yards and 8TD's in Sonny Merchant's 'air it out' type offense.  If they air it out enough and get opportunities to fire away on the Denbigh secondary, he's got a shot to get to 1000 yards for the season.  A consistent running game that is able to chew up clock time, tire the opposing defense and move the chains can be instrumental for either team, and Denbigh's personnel is better equipped in that area of the game.

Matt Says:  Denbigh 32-14

Rod Says:  Denbigh 35-17

Kecoughtan (4-5) at Warwick (5-4):  In year one after coming over from Princess Anne in Virginia Beach, Juan Jackson has certainly made quite an impression on the Warwick Raiders and their faithful, if for no other reason than beating the Hampton Crabbers for the first time since the 1960's.  Kecoughtan could've possibly enjoyed the type of season Warwick is having and still be alive for a playoff spot had quarterback Anthony 'Duke' Dorsey not been injured early in the season against Lake Taylor returning a kickoff.  At this point, Glenn Tidewell's Warriors are playing the role of 'spoiler' and looking to do so against a team that has a pretty consistent ground attack, averaging 219 yards per game rushing.  Courtney Hill, Lamonte' Williams and company should lead Warwick to victory as long as they don't divert from their strengths and game-plan.

Matt Says:  Warwick 28-16

Rod Says:  Warwick 24-17

2009 Eastern Region Football Previews

2009 Eastern Region Football Schedule & Results

Matthew Hatfield has covered Eastern Region Basketball & Football since 2004 for VirginiaPreps.com - the #1 High School Sports Site on the Rivals Network.  Check out Hatfield's website - www.matthewhatfield.com - for more on the pro and college sports scene.  To contact Matthew, please e-mail hatfieldsports2k4@yahoo.com, and catch him every Saturday on High School Sports Talk on ESPN Radio 94.1.